We'll warn you, if you're not interested in Math, probabilities or gambling, the following blog post is likely to bore you to death.
One of the longest running, controversial and popular fallacies in the world is the belief, support and use of betting systems apparently designed to improve or guarantee winnings from casino games such as roulette and craps. Such systems purport to overcome the casino odds by using various strategies, some simple and some complex to allow the user of such systems to “beat the casino”
Of course anyone familiar with casinos will know that people playing games such as roulette, blackjack and craps will statistically lose out over a long enough period because everyone playing such games are subject to the “house odds” - meaning that the chances of success are always very slightly in favour of the house (the casino) so that any betting spree long enough would statistically favour the house. For example the green zero in roulette or the player acting first in blackjack gives the casino a very slight advantage.
Such betting systems claim to not only overcome the house edge but virtually guarantee the person using it a profit, regardless of how long the betting spree goes on for.
Casino betting systems are advertised in a variety of ways, including many unethical methods of which the seasoned Internet user would be familiar with including SPAM email, malware attacks, spyware pop-ups and advertisements on equally unethical websites. Victims may be directed to websites or baited through email correspondence by people running the casino system scams. The people promoting such systems may either be under the false belief the system works, or may just be after your money, much like a get-rich-quick scam.
Many different varieties of systems have emerged over the decades, most of which pre date the Internet by many years. In fact most “brand new systems” flogged on the Internet daily are not brand new at all, rather one of many different thousands of systems that have been tried, tested and ultimately failed many years prior.
Varieties of systems include the "gambler fallacy" systems which somehow implement the age old fallacy that an event that has not occurred in some time is more likely to occur in the imminent future, for example a roulette wheel resulting in 3 red numbers in a row will more likely show a black number next. Of course this is not true, and anyone reading that previous sentence will realise this, but many systems disguise this error in logic by overtly complex equations and fancy hype.
Another type of system is the "bet big win small" systems such as the Martingale system which sees a player double his stake after every loss, so his first victory will cover his previous losses plus his original stake back, hence the small win. This system has proved incredibly popular since it maximises a players chances of winning in the short term, but like all "bet big win small" systems, the profit will only be small and the amount potentially lost will be much larger, meaning anyone using this system will eventually suffer a big loss and hence are at no more of a mathematical advantage that anyone using any other system. The probability of losing with the Martingale system is often underestimated by even experienced gamblers.
Another similar system involves betting low amounts on the majority of possible outcomes meaning the chance of victory will always be on the players side, who shall receive small profits. This is popular in roulette, where for example a player can place bets on 32 out of the 37 possible outcomes, meaning they are likely to win a small amount, but may suffer a huge loss. Like the Martingale, this may be a good short term solution, but players using such a system will eventually suffer a huge loss and be subject to the same mathematical probabilities as anybody else over the long term. Many betting systems stem from this short term solution to blind victims into thinking that the chances of winning can be on their side.
Even to this day many gamblers swear by and defend various betting systems, but the fact is that no one system will or can ever work, because of the core mathematics involved with gambling. No matter how the system is dressed up, or presented to the victim, or how complex the people behind the scam are willing to get, casino games are subject to simple, fundamental probabilities that no one can change. Betting systems that sell ultimate betting strategies are selling regurgitated information that will make no one more or less likely to become rich from a casino. Games such as roulette, blackjack and craps will always be in favour of the house over the long term, and in the words of Albert Einstein - "No one can possibly win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn't looking".
Wednesday 24 November 2010
Monday 15 November 2010
Your Get-Rich-Quick Scam Quick Checklist
Get-Rich-Quick scams take many variants, and if you're looking to make an extra buck online, be wary of schemes that match the following points -
- Extra discount pop-ups when you try and leave the page? They make you think you're getting a special deal when you're not.
- Large red fonts, yellow highlight and long winded sales letters? Get-Rich-Quick scammers are not great web designers, so the website or sales letter will usually look the same, a borrowed template, with outsourced graphics at the top.
- Rags to Riches story? Get-Rich-Quick scammers love rags to riches stories to help the victim relate to them. They are never true.
- Limited Offers, Limited Time or Limited Copies? It is always limited somehow with Get-Rich-Quick scams, because they want you to act hastily.
- UpSelling? Extremely infuriating is when the sales letter gets you to buy the system which will "make you a fortune" only to find out that you need to buy other upgrades if you really want to "make money."
- Tacky "Proof of Earnings" Pics or Vids? These are either fake or as a result of selling useless get-rich-quick information to other victims. Rest assured they are not a result of the "ultimate program" they are trying to flog to you.
- Secret Hush Hush Tips? Tips for making money online are endless, but there are no guaranteed groundbreaking techniques that will make anyone who tries them rich.
- Posting Links? If it involves the ambigious "posting links" then run away fast. There is no such thing as posting links and getting paid. This is an extremely vague way of describing affiliate marketing, which involves selling other peoples products through your referral link. Its certainly not as simple as posting links and getting paid!
- Fast cars and big houses? Get-Rich-Quick scams are notorious for painting the victim the picture of what it would be like to be rich, and this includes pictures of fast cars and big houses, no bills and no boss. They do this to lure the victim into the program by making them really want the program to work.
- Get-Rich-Quick? Yes thats right, get-rich-quick scams promise you will get rich quickly! There are no shortcuts to making money online fast. The cyber goldrush is over, and if you want to make real money online now, you have to work just as hard, or even harder than you would normally have to in the real world, and it doesn't happen over a few days! Sorry!
- Extra discount pop-ups when you try and leave the page? They make you think you're getting a special deal when you're not.
- Large red fonts, yellow highlight and long winded sales letters? Get-Rich-Quick scammers are not great web designers, so the website or sales letter will usually look the same, a borrowed template, with outsourced graphics at the top.
- Rags to Riches story? Get-Rich-Quick scammers love rags to riches stories to help the victim relate to them. They are never true.
- Limited Offers, Limited Time or Limited Copies? It is always limited somehow with Get-Rich-Quick scams, because they want you to act hastily.
- UpSelling? Extremely infuriating is when the sales letter gets you to buy the system which will "make you a fortune" only to find out that you need to buy other upgrades if you really want to "make money."
- Tacky "Proof of Earnings" Pics or Vids? These are either fake or as a result of selling useless get-rich-quick information to other victims. Rest assured they are not a result of the "ultimate program" they are trying to flog to you.
- Secret Hush Hush Tips? Tips for making money online are endless, but there are no guaranteed groundbreaking techniques that will make anyone who tries them rich.
- Posting Links? If it involves the ambigious "posting links" then run away fast. There is no such thing as posting links and getting paid. This is an extremely vague way of describing affiliate marketing, which involves selling other peoples products through your referral link. Its certainly not as simple as posting links and getting paid!
- Fast cars and big houses? Get-Rich-Quick scams are notorious for painting the victim the picture of what it would be like to be rich, and this includes pictures of fast cars and big houses, no bills and no boss. They do this to lure the victim into the program by making them really want the program to work.
- Get-Rich-Quick? Yes thats right, get-rich-quick scams promise you will get rich quickly! There are no shortcuts to making money online fast. The cyber goldrush is over, and if you want to make real money online now, you have to work just as hard, or even harder than you would normally have to in the real world, and it doesn't happen over a few days! Sorry!
Wednesday 3 November 2010
10 Tips for Shopping Safely Online
The amounts of shops and services accepting payment online is increasing dramatically, meaning there is an extremely wide range of products available at the click of a mouse. It is no surprise that scammers have flocked to the retail side of the Internet looking to steal your money, but if you follow some easy safety procedures, using your credit or debit card online can be just as safe as using it in your local shop.
10. Never wire money through Western Union or MoneyGram!
Run away at the mention of either of these services. They are not designed to be used by online businesses, and are prolifically used by scammers because of their lack of security.
9. Never buy from new websites.
Scam websites popup every month or so, and rarely last more than a several months. That is why you should try and avoid new websites selling goods, unless you have a good enough reason to trust that site.
8. Only enter your card information on a secure server
If you’re worried that sounds too technical, you needn’t be. Look at the start of the web address. https:// means secure. No “s” means not secure (just http://). Never enter your card details on a domain without the “s”.
7. Never buy from a site with poor spelling and grammar
Scam websites often originate from places like China or Russia. Be on the look out for poor grammar, syntax and spelling. Even if the website is legit, do you want to be buying from an unprofessional seller?
6. Don’t buy from websites with poor contact details
Essentially, always look out for a postal address, and do not trust websites that used free web based email addresses like Hotmail or Yahoo.
5. Don’t buy from poorly designed websites
Look for company branding, and good design. Scammers quickly set up website templates meaning there may be design and development flaws, and the site will often look tacky.
4. Don’t buy from sites if the prices are too good
Because most scam websites won’t actually sell anything, they will of course bait their victims with extremely low prices. Ask yourself if the prices are too good to be true. If they are, you may be getting scammed.
3. Have up-to-date Antivirus and Spyware Removal Software
Spyware steals your personal details like card information, so even if you are buying from a legit site, spyware can still put your privacy at risk. Run up-to-date antivirus software to make sure your computer is clean.
2. Don’t send your bank account, routing number or social security information
For readers in the UK, this means sort code and national insurance number. Online retailers don’t need this information so if they ask for it, you should shy away.
1. Novice shoppers should stick with the famous brands
If you’re new to the whole e-commerce scene, it is best to stick with reputable sites, and by this we mean –
Manufacturer websites, such as the official Sony, Dell or Samsung websites.
Shop websites, such as the official PCWorld, Walmart or Debenhams websites.
Other famous sites, such as Amazon.com or Buy.com.
Another bonus to sticking with sites like this is that the prices will always be competitive and there is plenty of buyer protection!
Those are our top tips to shopping safely online, and if you follow them, you should not find yourself falling foul to any Internet scams. This is a condensed version of our full article which can be read here.
10. Never wire money through Western Union or MoneyGram!
Run away at the mention of either of these services. They are not designed to be used by online businesses, and are prolifically used by scammers because of their lack of security.
9. Never buy from new websites.
Scam websites popup every month or so, and rarely last more than a several months. That is why you should try and avoid new websites selling goods, unless you have a good enough reason to trust that site.
8. Only enter your card information on a secure server
If you’re worried that sounds too technical, you needn’t be. Look at the start of the web address. https:// means secure. No “s” means not secure (just http://). Never enter your card details on a domain without the “s”.
7. Never buy from a site with poor spelling and grammar
Scam websites often originate from places like China or Russia. Be on the look out for poor grammar, syntax and spelling. Even if the website is legit, do you want to be buying from an unprofessional seller?
6. Don’t buy from websites with poor contact details
Essentially, always look out for a postal address, and do not trust websites that used free web based email addresses like Hotmail or Yahoo.
5. Don’t buy from poorly designed websites
Look for company branding, and good design. Scammers quickly set up website templates meaning there may be design and development flaws, and the site will often look tacky.
4. Don’t buy from sites if the prices are too good
Because most scam websites won’t actually sell anything, they will of course bait their victims with extremely low prices. Ask yourself if the prices are too good to be true. If they are, you may be getting scammed.
3. Have up-to-date Antivirus and Spyware Removal Software
Spyware steals your personal details like card information, so even if you are buying from a legit site, spyware can still put your privacy at risk. Run up-to-date antivirus software to make sure your computer is clean.
2. Don’t send your bank account, routing number or social security information
For readers in the UK, this means sort code and national insurance number. Online retailers don’t need this information so if they ask for it, you should shy away.
1. Novice shoppers should stick with the famous brands
If you’re new to the whole e-commerce scene, it is best to stick with reputable sites, and by this we mean –
Manufacturer websites, such as the official Sony, Dell or Samsung websites.
Shop websites, such as the official PCWorld, Walmart or Debenhams websites.
Other famous sites, such as Amazon.com or Buy.com.
Another bonus to sticking with sites like this is that the prices will always be competitive and there is plenty of buyer protection!
Those are our top tips to shopping safely online, and if you follow them, you should not find yourself falling foul to any Internet scams. This is a condensed version of our full article which can be read here.
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